The long term
historical trends regarding this “ultimate
game” can swing wildly. During the decade
and a half of NFC total dominance blowouts
happened regularly. But of late underdogs
have hung in there producing some very good
and close games. Favorites are 3-6-1 ATS
over the last decade.
BUT—such stats are
yearly things and present a small sampling.
Several historical
game and team trends are much more relvant.
- Do you foresee
either team reaching 27 points in the
game? In Super Bowl. History 23 tems
have scored 27 or more. Those teams are
22-1 SU and 20-2-1 ATS
- 31 of the 40 Super
Bowls have been decided by 7 points or
more. Despite recent history you must
consider the very real possibility of a
blowout on Sunday
- Ten of Indy’s 16
wins this season are by 7 points or less
and only once have they won by more than
7 away from home.
- The 6 AFC Playoff
teams combined to go 21-3 SU vs the NFC
this year (Dallas’ win over Indy was one
of these 3 defeats)
- The 6 NFC Playoff
teams went 10-14 SU vs the AFC opponents
(Dallas went 3-1. No other NFC playoff
entrant had a winning record).
- Overall the AFC
went 40-24 SU vs the NFC this season
- Before Bears stars
DT Tommie Harris was lost for the season
to injury, Chicago permitted 12.5 PPG.
Since his injury they’ve allowed 24ppg
- Forget those
terrible Indy regular season rushing
defense numbers (173 yards allowed per
game which was the worst in the entire
NFL). In the playoffs they’re allowing
73 yards per contest and permit 7 less
points per game.
- Neither team
allows their QB to be sacked…Neither
side finished in the top 15 in the
league in sacking opposing QBs
- It’s a myth that
the Bears run the ball well. Their 3.8
yards per rush rates 23rd in
the NFL. What the Bears actually do is
run the ball A LOT!
- Indy has very poor
kick coverage! Oh, oh! They must stop
one of the league’s to kickoff and punt
return guys in Devin Hester. Indy
finished 30th in kickoff
coverage and #31 in stopping punt
returners.
Some key thoughts
about this matchup:
- Chicago’s NOT
built as a “come-from-behind” team. If
Rex Grossman MUST pass that means the
Bears MUST be in trouble
- The Bears often
benefit from excellent field position
given them by solid special teams and
defensive play. To win Chicago must
continue to win this battle. The Bears
are not built to sustain huge drives.
- The Bears
returners and dfense scored 58 points
this season WOW! Scores like that
incredibly inspire teams.
- Two really good
kickers here. Very little edge to Indy
even though they have the more
experienced of the two.
- Bears corner
Charles Tillman might be the player
Manning picks on
- WRs Harrison and
Wayne get huge publicity. But in their
3 playoff victories, Indy’s TEs and RBs
have caught 42 passes. YIKES! Watch TE
Dallas Clark in particular
- Chicago lives on
winning the turnover battle
- In 11 games where
Peyton Manning has been favored by 6 or
more vs an NFC Team, Indy is 11-0 SU and
9-2 ATS.
The Pick
I really like Indy big
here. There’s an enormous AFC/NFC
disparity. I believe at least 4 and perhaps
as many as 5 or 6 AFC teams would be favored
in this game over the Bears.
Chicago runs the “Tampa
2” defense a scheme the Colts practice
against everyday because they run an
identical defense. Chicago does rate an
upset chance IF they create something big
with their special teams and “D”.
But, I feel Manning and
the Colts cleared a huge hurdle with that
rally over New England.
DOUBLE PLAY: INDY
MINUS THE POINTS
LEAN TO: CHICAGO/INDY
OVER
PROPOSITION: Under the
total of 4 combined sacks
PROPOSITION: UNDER THE TOTAL OF 10 POINTS
IN THE 1ST QTR
